Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

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The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) new Long-Term Budget Outlook presents plenty of good news on Medicare costs yet still highlights the role that increased federal health care spending plays in driving the medium- and long-run growth in our debt. While costs are lower than in last year’s projection, health care spending is still expected to increase significantly as a percent of GDP over the long term. http://crfb.org/blogs/dissecting-good-health-care-spending-news-cbos-long-term-outlook

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One of the biggest stories of last year’s long-term outlook was the deterioration in Social Security’s financial picture. Largely due to CBO’s expectation that people will live longer, its estimate of the 75-year shortfall grew by more than half from their 2012 outlook – from 2.1 percent of taxable payroll to 3.4 percent (1.2 percent of GDP). CBO predicted that the combined Social Security trust funds would run out of money by 2031, two years earlier than predicted by the Trustees. This year’s projections show a further deterioration in Social Security’s financial situation, with the 75-year shortfall now projected at 4.0 percent of payroll (1.4 percent of GDP) and the trust fund expected to be exhausted by 2030. The Disability Insurance trust fund faces a more immediate issue, with its exhaustion date set for FY 2017. http://crfb.org/blogs/cbo-social-security-trust-fund-be-exhausted-1-year-earlier-2030

One of the biggest stories of last year’s long-term outlook was the deterioration in Social Security’s financial picture. Largely due to CBO’s expectation that people will live longer, its estimate of the 75-year shortfall grew by more than half from their 2012 outlook – from 2.1 percent of taxable payroll to 3.4 percent (1.2 percent of GDP). CBO predicted that the combined Social Security trust funds would run out of money by 2031, two years earlier than predicted by the Trustees. This year’s projections show a further deterioration in Social Security’s financial situation, with the 75-year shortfall now projected at 4.0 percent of payroll (1.4 percent of GDP) and the trust fund expected to be exhausted by 2030. The Disability Insurance trust fund faces a more immediate issue, with its exhaustion date set for FY 2017. http://crfb.org/blogs/cbo-social-security-trust-fund-be-exhausted-1-year-earlier-2030